Existential Risk Taxonomy
Fourteen ER domains, permanent identifiers, mechanisms and cross-domain references.
Explore taxonomy →
Independent research. Global perspective. A deeper understanding of humanity’s future.
An interdisciplinary research initiative dedicated to studying and understanding existential, global catastrophic, and systemic risks associated with advanced artificial intelligence and related technologies. Our research examines emerging threats, potential consequences, interconnected risk domains, and the evolving body of scientific and scholarly evidence. Through structured taxonomies, comparative analysis, and critical examination of governance and safety frameworks, we seek to advance understanding, encourage informed discourse, and contribute to the broader international research community.
Website v2.3.1 · Research previewFourteen ER domains, permanent identifiers, mechanisms and cross-domain references.
Explore taxonomy →Scenario modeling, cascading effects, uncertainty and escalation pathways.
Explore assessment →Scholarly bibliography, provenance verification and taxonomy mapping.
Explore sources →Examination of governance frameworks, proposed safety approaches, institutional responses, and international cooperation.
Explore governance →Expand any domain to view its permanent subdomain identifiers and associated research sources.
Selected contributors to AI safety and existential-risk scholarship; inclusion does not imply endorsement of IAIGCRM.
Superintelligence (2014) · Long-term AI risk
Human Compatible (2019) · AI alignment and control
AI: Unexplainable, Unpredictable, Uncontrollable (2024) · AI control
Managing Extreme AI Risks Amid Rapid Progress (2024, coauthor) · AI safety
Managing Extreme AI Risks Amid Rapid Progress (2024, coauthor) · Advanced AI risk
Army of None (2018) · Autonomous weapons
Expanded curated research register. Browse by author, domain or recent publications. All entries require final editorial verification.
Specify threat scenarios, initiating conditions, causal and escalation pathways, systemic impacts, assumptions, uncertainty, confidence and residual risk. Distinguish evidence-based analysis from speculative mechanisms.
Examine proposed preventive, detective and responsive safeguards; compare governance arrangements, accountability, oversight and international cooperation. Distinguish demonstrated effectiveness from proposals, unresolved questions and residual uncertainty.
Research records distinguish empirical evidence, historical analogy, modeled analysis, theoretical argument and speculation. Consequence tiers (systemic, global catastrophic and existential) are not probability estimates. Capability maturity and uncertainty must be documented independently.
Identifier policy: ER-13 and ER-14 appear immediately after ER-03 in thematic display order. Permanent identifiers do not change. Cross-domain overlaps are retained pending editorial resolution.
Version control: Website v2.3.1 landscape refinement; taxonomy v0.3 draft; source register v0.2 candidate. Publication requires separate authorization.